Présidentielles 2014 9

Tunisia: Media Sink Back into Collusion ahead of run-off vote

In this extremely polarized electoral context, how did the media frame the public discussion and shaped the public opinion? A very bad role, if one believes the 3rd report of Independent High Authority for Audio-Visual Communication (Haica) on the political pluralism, which points the partiality of the audio-visual coverage of the presidential campaigns. Furthermore, the press took a dangerous turn when being engulfed in shifting sands of propaganda and voluntary complicity. But these repetitions seem to worry neither the politicians, nor the journalists.

All that glitters: Tunisian Democratic-Exception?

Media coverage of the MENA region is plagued by blanket statements and superficial analysis. International news outlets reserve even the right to name events. The so-called Arab Spring is an example of a de facto forced label. I will proceed to call the events bundled as such, rightfully and as their proponents overwhelmingly agree: Arab Revolutions. To the matter at hand: Tunisia’s ongoing general elections are hailed as the sole success-story of the Arab revolutions. Democratic transitions are complicated and that statement is a gross Orientalist over-simplification.

Kannou, Tunisia’s sole female presidential candidate and would-be fairytale ending to democratic transition

The symbolism of being the first and only female in the running for president is at once a defining strength and weakness of Kannou’s candidacy. Aside from this factor and given her dynamism in an election that is largely based on personality, Kannou’s lack of specific, pragmatic socio-economic project proposals limits her potential outstanding status amongst her political rivals in this election in spite of what international media might have liked to idealize.

Tunisia: A Revolution Anesthetized ?

Never underestimate the killer instincts of a class whose power and influence are under threat. They bite back, and hard. For make no mistake, with the huge margin of victory Nidaa Tounis managed to muster a few weeks ago in the legislative elections, the bite was a sizable one and subsequently any chance of fundamental social and political change have been dealt an unquantifiable blow.

Tunisia’s Presidential Elections 2014: campaign posters, public communication and political marketing

In this last phase of electoral campaigning, our presidential candidates have flooded television and radio stations to present their political programs. While some have limited public communication to a discourse concerning the constitionally-imposed attributes of a president, others appeal to undecided voters with a discourse devoted to populist issues, and still others have made far-fetched promises that are well beyond their capacity to keep.

A predictive model for the outcome of the 2014 Tunisian presidential Elections

The model has three major steps to get the final forecast. First, we try to aggregate all available surveys and opinion polls, which will be weighted according to the credibility of the survey. Then we distribute the undecided votes among the various presidential candidates. There have been 45 presidential polls since elections in October 2011 with the majority of studies conducted by 3C surveys Sigma Council Emhord Consulting and the International Republican Institute. The evaluation criteria surveys are: (1) the sample size or number of respondents, (2) the date of the survey, and (3) the reliability of the organization or institution that led the survey.