Photo credit : Ahmed Zarrouki

As a disclaimer, I’m not an epidemiologist and not even remotely connected to the medical field. My observations below are based on collecting public data and applying them to the specific context in Tunisia, and using some of my training as a data scientist and predictive modeler. Below I’ve provided graphics, data, and alternative models in response to some pressing questions:

  1. How far are we from the significant outbreak?
  2. How many real cases of Coronavirus are in Tunisia?
  3. How ready is the Tunisian health care system to handle the upcoming outbreak?
  4. How can we reduce the mortality rates?

My aim here is to assess whether all the hype regarding the Coronavirus is justified, or if it has been sensationalized. Unfortunately, what you will most likely conclude is that:

  1. Tunisia’s has already entered the critical inflexion point for inverting
  2. The spread of Coronavirus has already taken place and the current number of case statistics are very misleadin
  3. World healthcare is not ready for this pandemic, and Tunisia’s health care system is likely to be overwhelmed and to crumble
  4. Given the dire state of Tunisia’s health care system, some hard decisions will need to be made, such as who will be given oxygen and who will be left to die
  5. Inverting the Coronavirus is still possible, but it takes immediate action now; currently social distancing is the only way to slow down the virus

1- What is the likely true number of cases in Tunisia?